Paranoid Putin is losing the battle of wills against the Ukrainians

Paranoid Putin is losing the battle of wills against the Ukrainians

Although it is too soon to know who killed Darya Durgina, the assumption among Russian officials that it was Kyiv reveals their unease

The bomb that tore through the car driven by Daria Dugina, daughter of nationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin, also blew apart the complacency of Moscow’s cheerleaders for the war. It seems unlikely (if not impossible) that it was the Ukrainians that were responsible, but it certainly adds to a growing Russian paranoia which, in turn, highlights an increasing insecurity in the Kremlin.

That’s because the bomb came in the context of other important developments. Kyiv has declared open season on the Crimean peninsula, attacking supply lines and depots and even sending a drone against the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. It is part of a deliberate strategy to escalate the war, both on the battlefield and in the minds of Kremlin operators.

Militarily, Putin once proudly boasted that Russia has “made a fortress out of Crimea, as much from the sea as from the land”, but it is increasingly hard for him to sustain that claim. The peninsula has been equipped with the latest Russia air defences and yet they are clearly unable to prevent Ukrainian rocket and drone attacks, while the claim that some attacks were carried out by saboteurs also undermines the credibility of the massive security force present. If the Kremlin can’t even defend Crimea, what can it defend?

On a strategic level, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is signalling to the West that the momentum is shifting. Ukraine may not yet have been able to launch the massive counter-offensive on Kherson that was expected, but instead it is using its new capabilities (which may include the latest US ATACMS long-range missiles, although this is being denied by the American authorities).

At the same time, there is a clear psychological dimension to the strategy. Putin has been telling his people that the war is going well, and relying on his control of the media to suppress information to the contrary. But Russian tourists’ own videos of explosions in Crimea have now gone viral on the country’s social media, and even the Kremlin is having to admit that its fleet HQ has been hit.

Wars are ultimately contests of will. By targeting Crimea, Zelensky is signalling that Russia – which, after all, is fighting no holds barred – can expect no special treatment either, and that he is willing to escalate. More to the point, he is signalling to Russian generals and public alike that it is Ukraine that has the initiative. Putin’s boasts will sound increasingly hollow.

This is why Dugina’s murder is likely to have a disproportionate effect. She was a cheerleader for the war, and her father’s semi-occult nationalist philosophies encouraged a new imperialist mood in Moscow. Although it is too soon to know who was behind the killing, the knee-jerk assumption among Russian officials that it was Kyiv reveals their unease.

Somehow, in their minds, the Ukrainians have been built up to the point where they can reach out and target their enemies even in Moscow’s suburbs with impunity. Who might they go after next?

For now, the predictable Kremlin response will be anger, and perhaps some symbolic retaliation during tomorrow’s celebrations of Ukrainian independence – but it will only be masking a growing paranoia and unease. This was not how Putin’s war was meant to go, and who knows where that fact may lead him.